Wednesday, August 17, 2005

Niall Ferguson on Iran

"So where do we go from here? Plan A - the European carrot - has failed. Plan B - the flaccid UN stick - will also fail. Unfortunately Plan C - American (or Israeli) air strikes - is fraught with peril. According to Michael J Mazarr of the US National War College, Iran could retaliate with 'an elaborate, ferocious, global provocation designed to draw the United States into a protracted conflict'.
That translates into more terrorism in our cities and an escalation of the war in Iraq. 'If Iran wanted,' Iraq's Deputy Foreign Minister Hamid Al Bayati said in February, 'it could make Iraq a hell for the United States.'
Now, ask yourself, what would be the likely effect of such a confrontation on Iranian politics?
To repeat: the Iranian revolution is still at an early stage. It has not yet produced its Bonaparte, its Stalin, its Mao. Or has it? A full-scale war with the 'Great Satan' may be all Mr Ahmadinejad needs to don that bloody mantle."

Full story here ... Telegraph | Opinion:


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